The Iran War has caused massive damage to Iran and massive damage to national economies world wide. A main cause is Iran’s program to develop nuclear weapons. This column will ask the question : What’s so bad about an Iranian Nuclear Bomb?
`Does Iran even have a nuclear weapons program?
According to the Council on Foreign Relations : “ Iran does not ye have a nuclear weapon, but it has a long history of engaging in secret nuclear weapons research in violations of its international commitments. Western analysts say the country has the knowledge and infrastructure to produce a nuclear weapon in fairly short order should its leaders decide to do so.”
Nine countries already have the Bomb but haven’t used it. What’s so terrible about having a tenth?
There are three main points to be made here. First, since the end of World War II there have been crises leading to a realistic possibility of nuclear war. Here are three of them
Americans are most familiar with the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 .October 1973 Middle East War. Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack against Israel . For a few days it appeared that Israel might be overwhelmed with catastrophic consequences for its existence. Israel made preparations to use its nuclear weapons against the invading armies. Fortunately the Israeli army was able to turn the tide and didn’t need to deploy the bomb to save itself.
More recently India -Pakistan came ‘close to a nuclear conflagration’ in their February 2019 confrontation according to the memoir written by then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. It said India and Pakistan Fortunately , due to American diplomatic efforts a full-scale war was avoided.
What Iran could do if it had a bomb? An Iranian bomb would enable it to dominate the entire Persian Gulf area and its oil producing Arab states and could close the Straits of Hormuz with less concern about military retaliation. .
Iran has several affiliated militias ,often called proxy armies, throughout the Middle East. Those armies could be deployed more actively because retaliation against Iran would be less likely. . For example the Houtis in Yemen could close the Bab al Mandeb straits thus cutting off the Red Sea . Traffic through Egypt’s Suez Canal depends on access to the Red Sea as does shipping from Eilat (Israel) and from Aquaba (Jordan).
Is the United States directly threatened by Iran? Iran’s missiles are not capable of reaching the United States itself at present. However those missiles are capable at hitting American military bases in the Middle East and parts of Europe. It is important to remember that Iran has been hostile to the US since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Holding our diplomats hostage for 444 days, killing at least 600 American troops in Iraq and elsewhere and chanting Death to America every Friday are notable examples.
Would Iran be safer if it did have a nuclear weapon?Iran seems to think so and at first glance it might be right . Iraq attacked Iran in 1980 and the war lasted for eight years. It is reasonable to assume that Iraq would not have attacked if Iran had nuclear weapons. The United States and Israel have attacked Iran twice. From that perspective a nuclear armed Iran might have been sufficient to deter the attacks. On the other hand, it is nuclear weapons potential that has made Iran a target. Saudi Arabia has announced that it will build a nuclear bomb if Iran does. Those two countries have been hostile to each other for decades .A key issue is the Sunni/Shia, Arab/Persian conflict over who should govern the holy mosques in Mecca and Medina
Aren’t there international agreements to stop an Iranian bomb?
Theoretically yes. However neither the Non-Proliferation Treaty of 1970 or the JCPOA of 2015 would stop Iran from building nuclear bomb if it really wanted to. Iran signed the NPT treaty but could withdraw from it just as North Korea did. The JCPOA ( from which the US has withdrawn) restricted Iran’ nuclear program .capping its uranium enrichment to 3.67 percent . The International Atomic Energy Agency was empowered to enforce it. Iran interfered with IAEA inspections making them less effective. President Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 . Iran then openly took steps to develop its nuclear program while denying it intended to build a bomb.
Final thoughts: An Iranian nuclear weapon would be a threat to its neighbors, international sea borne commerce and American interests in the Middle East . An Iranian bomb would make the entire world less stable without serving any legitimate purpose for Iran. Both Democratic and Republican presidents have said that Iran should never have a nuclear weapon and they are right.