February 2026
This month marks the fourth anniversary of Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine . Russia’s dictator Vladimir Putin thought that he would win in a matter of days . Despite Russia’s many advantages Ukraine has proven him wrong
- Russia’s population is three times larger than Ukraine’ s. Even though Russia has suffered about 1.3 million casualties it has the ability to mobilize tens of thousands more men if necessary.
- Russia has a vast array of nuclear weapons to intimate Ukraine and its allies.
- Putin has military support from China, Iran and North Korea.
- US President Trump tends to be favorable to Russia . As Bloomberg Politics described it: Trump’s approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine is pressuring the victim as much or more than the aggressor.
- Putin has been able to inflict enormous pain on Ukraine . Ukraine has suffered 600,000 military casualties, the flight of 6.7 million refugees and 1.6 million internally displaced people. Russia is destroying the power infrastructure of Ukraine cities causing the civilian population to live in miserable conditions without reliable heating or water.
- Ukrainian children in the occupied area of Ukraine are being sent to military camps to be trained as future soldiers in the Russian army. Others are being adopted by Russian families. The fate of these children is of deep concern to Ukrainians.
Many governments would accept a disadvantageous ceasefire agreement under these circumstances.
- 65% say they are ready to endure war for as long as necessary .
- A majority of respondents categorically reject the proposal to transfer the entire Donbas to Russian control even in exchange for security guarantees. A minority of Ukrainians would be willing to sacrifice some of the Donbas still held by the Ukrainian army contingent upon reliable security guarantees from NATO. Such guarantees have not yet been offered . There is a broad consensus in Ukraine: Any agreement must guarantee that it can deter or win another war against Russia. Otherwise Putin will surely attack again as soon as his army is capable of doing so able. To put it another way, Ukrainians are willing to fight because at this point they see no other acceptable choice.
- After almost four years of full-scale war, Ukraine is now an innovator and producer of modern weapons. This includes the development of cruise missiles and inexpensive , highly accurate drones Ukraine. Agreements have been made to sell Ukrainian designed weapons to NATO countries. That revenue will be used to pay for weapons Ukraine doesn’t produce but urgently needs.
- Ukraine’s elected president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has significant popular support. According to a recent Gallup poll his approval rating stands at 67%.
- There is even some optimism about the future : 66% expect that in 10 years Ukraine will be a prosperous member of the European Union . A few weeks ago I interviewed a journalist from the Kyiv Independent newspaper by Google Meet. She told me some interesting stories based on her own observations: People are surprisingly resilient and resigned to the reality of a war for their country’s survival. For example, “I don’t head for bomb shelters because bombs don’t scare me any more”. Many children she interviewed said they were somewhat happy . How could that be? “School is on extended vacation ( aka closed). In stead of freezing at home or at school I can play outside with my friends”. Parting thoughts: Let the people of Ukraine know that they are not alone. For example: Donate to humanitarian organizations that are helping Ukrainians in their time of need . You can find an extensive list at Obama.Org/stories/help-ukraine/ Write to your federal elected representatives. Even a short “ Ukraine deserves American support in its fight for national survival” would be helpful. Write to Ukraine’s embassy in Washington and express your support. Ceasefire negotiations are underway now but knowledgeable observers are not optimistic. Putin has not won his war to rebuild the old Soviet empire but there isn’t any realistic chance that he will lose this war militarily . Ukraine is fighting to defend its survival as an independent nation but it is unlikely to regain the territory it has lost in its two recent wars against Russia. President Trump wants a peace agreement by June. Nobody knows what he will do if there is no agreement. In geopolitics and war , each government plays the cards it has. Their citizens pay for the game in blood and tears.