It is perfectly understandable that problems directly impacting our daily lives might displace concerns we had just a few months ago about the war in Ukraine. Abortion, baby formula and inflation feel like more pressing issues. This column is intended to do two things. First, to keep the war in Ukraine as one of our continuing concerns. We Americans owe Ukraine a debt of gratitude. As President Biden said this is a war between democracy and autocracy. Ukrainians are fighting for their own country. As an indirect result they are defending democracy itself as well. Second, to remind ourselves that the consequences of war are not confined to the borders of the country in which it is fought.
Ukrainian cities have been destroyed and its civilian population murdered. Millions have been made refugees and about 500,000 citizens have been deported to Russia. Its economy is in tatters. Industries and infrastructure has been destroyed . Wheat is now difficult to grow and almost impossible to export due to Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s seaports. The Russian flag can now been seen flying over areas controlled by the Russian army and the ruble is becoming the official currency in those areas. According to the United Nations, about 25 million Ukrainians, half the total population, will be in need of humanitarian assistance by the end of the year. If Putin annexes the Donbas, as US intelligence believes he intends to do, Ukraine may lose control over an important part of its own territory despite its heroic fight. If Ukraine succeeds in re-capturing the territory Russia seized since February 24 of this year , let alone 2014, there is a significant risk of a major Russian escalation.
It is not only Ukrainians who are suffering the consequences of Putin’s war.
Russia: What little freedom its citizens had has been lost as Putin has thoroughly cracked down on any dissent. It is now a serious crime to call this war a war. Dissenters are now referred to as “ foreign agents” , a dangerous label in an authoritarian state. It is true that Russia is currently earning several hundreds of billions of dollars from its oil and natural gas exports to Europe. The ruble has regained its pre-war value. However, Western sanctions will have an increasing impact as time goes on. Russia’s economic future is dismal. Its economy has already contracted by 10%. By the end of the year, its revenue from exported oil and natural gas will be reduced as the European Union countries sharply reduce their reliance on those products. Between 70-100 thousand highly educated citizens , many with critical high tech expertise, have already left the country. This exodus is crippling Russia’s hi- tech capabilities and associated industries. Spare parts for some factories and even military equipment are becoming scarce because sanctions stop them from being imported.
The Biden administration and its European allies have begun planning for a different world, in which they no longer try to coexist and cooperate with Russia, but actively seek to isolate and weaken it. This includes sanctions seizing about $300 billion in Russian financial assets.
Food shortage countries: Ukraine is a major food exporter and the war there is becoming a major global food scarcity problem. Russia and Ukraine account for about19% of the world’s corn exports and 29% of wheat exports. Ukraine is also the world’s largest exporter of sunflower oil. Potential Ukrainian exports are being blocked by the Russian navy.
The war in Ukraine has sent global food prices surging to record highs. In addition the high price of oil is making the manufacture of fertilizer more expensive.
Food export problems and the potential decrease in domestic output will have severe consequences for the world . There are estimates that 275 million people are “food insecure” ,a precursor to malnutrition and even starvation.
Another result of the food crisis is likely to be massive migration of people with little or no food to eat to countries that are more prosperous. Large scale ,unwelcome migration to Europe has already has been a major factor in the growth of nativist movements and authoritarian governments in Europe. A similar problem on our southern border has been a factor in the rise of Trumpism in the United States.
To summarize, the most direct victims of Putin’s war are the Ukrainian people. However Russian citizens have also lost. They are now living in a country with even fewer freedoms than they had before. They face a dim economic and professional future. Millions of people, especially in poor countries, face a crisis where food will be incredibly expensive or not available at all. Mass migration to Western countries could challenge liberal democracy in Europe and even the United States.
This is a grim picture and it is all too real .