This column is written because of the assault on Ukraine by Russia’s president. Vladimir Putin. Ukraine is determined to defend its budding democracy and its very existence as a sovereign state.
Suffering. Defending their country has been heroic but it has come at a terrible cost for Ukrainians. Cities are being reduced to rubble. Food, water and medicine are running out. For the first time in recent memory there has been an outbreak of polio. Covid will spread as people are packed in basements serving as bomb shelters. Several million women and children have become refuges. Many knowledgeable people believe that the worst is yet to come.
There appears to be no limit to the carnage Putin is ready to cause. When he cannot conquer a city he simply pulverizes it and/or tries to starve it into submission. There is a historical precedent for this. Putin has been in the process of restoring Joseph Stalin to a place of honor in Russian history. It was Stalin who engineered a famine that killed millions of Ukrainians in the 1930’s.
Western Unity. The West (the US, its NATO allies and the somewhat broader European Union) has been inspired by the heroism of the Ukrainian people. Their President ,Volodymyr Zelensky, has become a hero to much of the non-Putin world
NATO is now functioning again . France’s Macron called it “almost brain dead” just a few years ago. Severe sanctions have been imposed on Russia, Putin personally and his oligarch friends. The sanctions include most large Russian banks .These banks are also being shut out of SWIFT, an indispensable part of the world financial system. Billions of dollars of Russian assets stowed away in Western banks have been frozen. These action are supported by a large and bipartisan majority of Americans according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.
How long this Western unity will last is an open question. Domestic concerns in each country (e.g. inflation, elections, cultural issues) may turn attention from Ukraine to problems at home.
Escalation. President Biden has made it clear that there is a major distinction between Ukraine and NATO “We’re going to continue to stand together with our allies in Europe and send an unmistakable message. We will defend every single inch of NATO territory with the full might of the united and galvanized NATO. We will not fight a war against Russia in Ukraine. Direct conflict between NATO and Russia is World War III, something we must strive to prevent.”
Our president’s policy seems prudent but events are not completely under his control. For example, Russia is not allowing food to enter besieged cites. Will the West need to give military protection to convoys trying to bring in food and medical supplies? Lethal weapons and foreign volunteers are being sent by convoy into Ukraine through Poland .Putin has recently said those convoys are a legitimate target. Will the West respond directly if those convoys are attacked? Even more frightening, will Putin attack Poland?
Putin has hinted at the use of nuclear and chemical weapons. Will the West take some preemptive action or make threats of its own if it seems that Putin might actually use those weapons? In a recent address to the Russian people, Putin said that the goal of the West is “ the destruction of Russia” .If Putin is confronted with defeat he may become even more heartless As Michael Gove, a senior British official has said regarding the us of tactical nuclear weapons, “Putin dwells in a moral sphere the rest of us would find almost impossible to conceive of.”
Hope. If Ukraine is successful in stopping Putin from conquering their country, it may be able to offer him a chance to proclaim victory even in his defeat. In a March 8 interview wit ABC News, President Zelensky offered Putin a chance to end the war while claiming victory. While making it clear that his country will not capitulate or surrender Zelensky said that “ Ukraine is ready to hold a dialogue with Russia on security guarantees, on the future of the occupied territories of the Donbas and Crimea” . Not only that, in particular regarding the recognition of the independence of the occupied territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, a compromise is possible on this point. Seemingly dropping his interest in joining NATO, Zelensky said “ in the future Ukraine must have a collective security agreement with all its neighbors and with the participation of the world’s leading countries …”. These points address some of the stated reasons Putin launched his war in the first place.
For a view into Putin’s mindset, read the official Russian news agency Tass (Tass.com). For President Zelensky’s direct communication with the Ukrainian people read ukraine.gov./president. Both sites appear in English.
As of this writing, no one knows how or when this war will end. Until then Ukrainian suffering will get worse and the threat of a major escalation will not go away. ,