This column is about Ukraine in the fourth year of a war that Russia started. The president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, wants to wipe out Ukraine as an independent country with its own history and culture. Under the Biden administration NATO was revitalized and the US supported Ukraine in its hour of need. Under President Donald Trump US policy has changed .
Much of what Trump has been saying about the Ukraine war is simply not true. Volodymyr Zelensky is not a dictator .Zelensky was elected president and currently has a 62% approval rating . There have been no recent elections because the Ukrainian constitution forbids elections in wartime. Trump has said that the US has provided Ukraine with $350 billion in aid. The actual amount is $130-183 billion depending on what is included. Europe has given $166 billion. Contrary to Trump, Zelensky has praised and thanked the US for its assistance many times. Ukraine has in fact been open to diplomacy even before this war started and has agreed to a 30 day total ceasefire requested by Trump . Russia has accepted only a ceasefire limited in scope. Trump has blamed Ukraine for starting this war. That’s like blaming the victim of aggression for being attacked.
The situation on the ground
Russia controls about twenty percent of Ukrainian territory and is making slow progress westward along a 600 mile front line. According to the Institute for the Study of War, at this rate it would take Russia 83 years to conquer all of Ukraine’s territory. This has come at a tremendous cost. According to the British Ministry of Defense Russia has suffered about 900,000
soldiers dead or wounded .
Ukraine had a pre-war population of 41 million. According to the UN about 6,372,000 are now refugees in Europe and 560,000 are refugees elsewhere. Military causalities have been estimated at 300,000 dead and wounded.
Ukraine has built up its own defense industry. Drones are now the single most lethal weapon in this war inflicting 70% of combat causalities . Ukraine is manufacturing combat drones that are among the most advanced in the world .It is also developing a long range cruise missile that has already destroyed an oil refinery 1000 kilometers inside Russian territory.
After a contentious Oval Office meeting with Zelensky Trump suspended the supply of American weapons, intelligence sharing and vital communications . The latter two actions had an adverse impact on Ukraine immediately, with the Ukrainian military reporting hundreds of casualties in the first day . Trump has since resumed arms shipments and intelligence sharing with Ukraine
There is some good news. The countries in the NATO alliance, led by Britain and France, are staying aligned with Ukraine. They have been increasing their defense spending and weapons production capability. That is especially true of Poland and the three Baltic states because they are the most immediately threatened by Russia.
There is currently under discussion a plan to have British and/or French troops stationed in Ukraine to guarantee that country’s security.
Negotiations for a 30 day partial ceasefire covering just shipping and energy targetsbegan on March 24 in Saudi Arabia. There are at least two critical unknowns: First, will the NATO countries have both the will and the capability to help Ukraine negotiate with Russia from a position of strength . A second unknown is how much Donald Trump will influence the outcome by threatening Ukraine with a cut off of military aid and/or ending US economic sanctions against Russia.
If the ceasefire negotiators discuss broader issuesRussia’s demands are likely to be: Ukraine must concede its territorial loses to Russia, never join NATO, sharply reduce the size of its army and hold elections rigged to replace Zelensky with a president more accommodating to Russia . Ukraine will insist on the right to build and retain a military force capable of deterring future aggression from Russia. It will probably seek a complete exchange of POW’s and the return of children kidnapped and adopted by Russian families . Ukraine will not formally concede the loss of territory to Russia. Instead it will state that Ukraine will seek any changes in the ceasefire lines by peaceful means only. Ukraine will not press the issue of NATO membership but will want to leave open the option of joining the European Union.
Even if a 30 day ceasefire agreement is reached, it is far from certain that Ukraine and Russia will subsequently reach a long-term agreement that ends the fighting completely.
Ukraine has fought bravely for more than three years and has shed a great deal of blood , both military and civilian. It needs to be realistic and make some concessions. However Ukraine’s political independence and cultural heritage are at stake. Ukraine will not accept any agreement if the terms are Ukraine’s destruction.