Gaza Peace Plan : Hope for a better future
This column is about the recently signed Gaza Peace Plan of President Trump: Why the plan may succeed; why the plan may fail; why there is reasonable hope for a better future
Let’s start by reviewing the plan. It has twenty points and several stages starting with a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. So far the ceasefire is holding more or less. Humanitarian aid is entering in large, albeit insufficient, quantities. Displaced Gazans are returning to the cities they lived in prior to the war, as destroyed as those cities may be. The living Israeli hostages and most of the dead ones have returned home . Israel has completed the first stage of its obligatory withdrawal.
As an interim stage a newly constituted Board of Peace will make the major policy decisions . Its chairman will be President Trump . Former British prime minister Tony Blair will be second in authority . The Palestinian role for the foreseeable future will be that of technocrats acceptable to the Board, “responsible for delivering the day-to-day running of public services” .
An International Stabilization Force will be in temporary control of internal security in Gaza . A rebuilding of Gaza will commence at some point.
Why the plan may succeed
President Trump has taken charge of the situation as far as Israel’s actions are concerned. He now tells Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu what Israel must do or can’t do in Gaza. The threat of withholding future military, economic and diplomatic aid is a huge club Trump is holding over Israel’s head.
Israel’s next election will be held no later than October 2026. The majority of Israelis support ending the Gaza war. So do Israel’s military and security leaders . About 100,000 army reservists are being released from military service and don’t want to be recalled to serve again in a Gaza war. Israel’s economy and national budget have borne a heavy burden to finance this war.
Given those realities continuing the Gaza war would be a political liability for Netanyahu .
As for Hamas, thirty one Arab and Muslim states have pressured them to accept the Trump plan. There are many ways the US can help those countries so they need to stay in Trump’s good graces. Hamas’ ally, Hezbollah, has been destroyed and Iran’s military power has been significantly diminished. Therefore Hamas is now isolated diplomatically and militarily.
Hamas has nothing more to gain from the war. Qatar has convinced Hamas that holding the Israeli hostages is no longer an asset.
Israel’s conduct in the Gaza war is widely seen as excessive and even genocidal. Israel has become a pariah state increasingly isolated on the world stage. Therefore pictures of more hungry, amputated or dead Palestinians no longer serve an important function for Hamas.
Two thousand Palestinians have been released from Israeli jails. Of these 250 had been convicted of murder and will be returned to the West Bank. In addition 1700 are Gazans arrested by Israel during the war on suspicion of crimes that were not specified. Hamas will bask in the glory of having secured their release. Also, the released Palestinians will be good recruits for Hamas in the future.
Hamas knows that it will not disappear even if it is not officially in power. The reconstruction of Gaza will cost between $50- $70 billion paid for by the wealthy Arab states. Hamas anticipates getting its hands on some slice of that money.
President Trump has remained engaged with the plan that bears his name . He has sent VP Vance to Israel “ to see how things are going”. Diplomatic envoys Witcoff and Kushner were sent to Israel to talk about reconstruction . Egypt , Qatar and Turkey have stayed engaged to ensure that Hamas adheres to its obligations .
Why the plan may fail :
Many of the twenty points in the plan are ambiguous and actionable commitments are still to be negotiated. The plan has a long time line making it vulnerable to numerous problems that are difficult to resolve.
Extremists on either side could provoke a serious incident on the Temple Mount/ Haram al-Sharif in Jerusalem. Popular outrage could spark a cycle of retaliation and counter retaliation .
Hamas may try to reassert its control of Gaza. Israel may continue its violence against Palestinians in the West bank
The plan is almost solely about Gaza. A future Palestinian state is alluded to in the plan but there is only a vague next step and time line. Absent a realistic path to a Palestinian state no enduring Israel/Palestine peace is achievable.
Hope for a better future:
Many pitfalls lie in the road ahead. However, the most powerful decision makers in this situation are President Trump and numerous Arab and Muslim states. They have a major self- interest in seeing the plan succeed. God willing it will