Covid 19: November Voting is in Jeopardy April 2020 Column
This column is about the November 2020 national election. In my opinion there is a significant possibility that two bedrocks of democracy are in jeopardy: 1. Every eligible citizen should be able to cast their vote. 2. The outcome of the election should be widely accepted as legitimate even by supporters of the losing candidate.
My fear is that the Covid-19 pandemic will put both of these bedrocks in jeopardy. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has said that he “can’t guarantee” that it will be safe to physically vote at polls in November due to coronavirus.
“I hope so,…but I can’t guarantee it.” https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-fauci-says-he-cant-guarantee-in-person-voting-in-november-will-be-safe/
- In terms of the voting rights of citizens, the pandemic presents numerous logistic problems to be solved in the next six months. In terms of physical presence voting:
- Will there be enough people willing to risk their health by working at the polls?
- Where will citizens vote? Some of the typical voting places are schools and houses of worship. It is conceivable that school superintendents will not put their students at risk by having hundreds of people entering the school, even if it is just the gymnasium. Clergy may have similar concerns for their congregants. Senior centers and community centers will face the same dilemma. In the most recent election is Wisconsin only five polling places were open in the entire city of Milwaukee. Usually there are 180.
- Polling locations where the virus is detected may need to be changed at the last minute. It is likely that some potential voters will find it difficult to track down or get to the new location.
Extending the number of days for early voting might be a partial solution. It would spread out the number of physical presence voters over a greater number of days. However, this approach carries its own problems: The number of election workers, or at least their working hours, would need to increase. If Covid-19 is detected in a voting site would it need to be closed? Would remaining voters be clear as to where the new site might be?
Voting entirely by mail would be a possible solution. Five states — Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah and Washington — conduct elections mostly by mail. Twenty-eight others and the District of Columbia allow voters to cast absentee ballots by mail without providing a reason.
However, the federal Election Assistance Commission has prepared a sample timeline for states to implement 100 percent mail balloting. It lays out scores of steps, like procuring software, training staff and getting federal post office approval of ballot envelopes, that would have to be completed between starting the process and Election Day on Nov. 3. Could all the logistic problems be resolved with confidence in the remaining months even if states started working on it today?
Looking at the 2018 election about 25 percent of votes were cast by mail. Getting to 100 percent or anything close to it seems to me to be quite a stretch.
It is conceivable that millions of citizens will be denied the right to vote based on logistic hurdles and/or understandable fears for their health. Mail balloting and extended early voting will at best mitigate the problem.
.
Shocking as it may seem, it is also possible for a state to disregard the votes that have been cast when it comes to selecting electors.
In the 2000 election, the majority of the Court in Bush v. Gore, declared that the state legislature “may, if it so chooses, select the electors itself,” and retains authority to “take back the power to appoint electors” even after switching to a statewide vote.
This is how Slate magazine described that possibility:“Put simply, it is perfectly constitutional for a state legislature to scrap statewide elections for president and appoint electors itself. It would also be constitutional for a state legislature to disregard the winner of the statewide vote and assign electors to the loser. And because the Constitution grants legislatures the authority to pick electors this way, Congress cannot stop them.”
No state in modern times has done that, but many historical standards of conduct have been violated under the current Administration. In April, President Trump threatened to adjourn the Congress over what he called a “scam” to prevent voting on his judicial nominees. Never in the history of our Republic has such a power even been suggested.
In terms of legitimacy, consider the following possibilities. Assume Joe Biden wins both electoral college and popular vote. Donald Trump could still claim that the vote totals represent million of votes were fraudulently cast. He made that claim in 2016 and has claimed this year that mailed in ballots are rife with fraud.
Assume that Donald Trump carries the Electoral College but not the popular vote. It would be the third time in the 21st century that a Republican became president on that basis. Especially if the popular vote in battleground states is close, Democrats may not consider the election as legitimate.
What if there are many legal challenges that are ultimately resolved in the Supreme Court? Will the losing side accept the legitimacy of that outcome? Al Gore did in 2000. That act of self-sacrificing civic responsibility may not be repeated in 2020.
Even more important to me than who is elected is that all adult citizens be able to cast their vote and that the election results are widely considered to be legitimate. Tragically, the current pandemic put both at risk.
Tag Line: Richard Fein’s purpose in writing his columns is to promote civil discourse on topics of public interest. Richard holds a Master of Arts degree in Political Science and an MBA in Economics. If you would like links to the sources supporting facts cited in this column, email columnist@gazettenet.com.