In June of last year and February 2026 the US and Israel attacked Iran. A main cause was Iran’s program to develop a nuclear weapon.This column will ask the question: Why would an Iranian nuclear weapon be of such concern to other countries?
Does Iran have a nuclear weapons program now?
According to the Council on Foreign Relations : “ Iran does not yet have a nuclear weapon, but it has a long history of engaging in secret nuclear weapons research in violation of its international commitments. Western analysts say the country has the knowledge and infrastructure to produce a nuclear weapon in fairly short order should its leaders decide to do so”.
Nine countries already have nucsnow. What’s so terrible about having a tenth?
Arms control experts agree that the more countries that have a nuclear weapon the more likely it is that a bomb will be used. There are many reasons for this but space limitations prevent discussing them in this column.
Has the world ever come close to an actual nuclear war?
There have been a number of crises leading to the realistic possibility of nuclear war. Here are three of them:
The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 is a generally well known event involving the US and the Soviet Union.
In October 1973 , Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack against Israel . For several days it appeared that Israel might be overwhelmed and its very existence imperiled. Israel made preparations to use its nuclear weapons against the invading armies if necessary. Fortunately the Israeli army was able to turn the tide and the Bomb was not used.
India -Pakistan came ‘close to a nuclear conflagration’ in their February 2019 confrontation according to the memoir written by then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Fortunately , due to American diplomatic efforts a full-scale war was avoided.
What could Iran do if it had a bomb? An Iranian bomb would enable it to dominate the entire Persian Gulf area and its oil producing Arab states. That would give Iran enormous influence over the production level and price of petroleum.
Iran controls several large militias ,often called proxy armies, throughout the Middle East. Those armies could be deployed more actively because retaliation against Iran would be less likely. . For example the Houtis in Yemen could close the Bab el-Mandeb straits thus cutting off the Red Sea . That would effectively close shipping through Egypt’s Suez Canal which carries thirty percent of global container traffic.
Is the United States directly threatened by Iran? Iran’s missiles are not capable of reaching the United States itself today but may be able to do so in the future. At present Iran is capable of hitting American military bases in the Middle East and the territory of US allies in the region.
Would Iran be safer if it did have a nuclear weapon?Iran seems to think so . The United States and Israel have attacked Iran twice within eight months. If Iran already had a nuclear weapon it might have been sufficient to deter the attacks. On the other hand, it is Iran’s nuclear weapons program that has made Iran a target in the first place . Given the likely response of other countries to an Iran with nucs Iran would actually be in greater danger of a massively destructive war than it is now. For example Saudi Arabia has announced that it will build a nuclear bomb if Iran does. Those two countries have been hostile to each other for decades . A key issue is the Sunni/Shia, Arab/Persian conflict over who should govern the holy places in Mecca and Medina . Religion based hostility between neighbors can quickly escalate into the use of nuclear weapons. Also, because Iran has threatened to annihilate Israel since 1979, Israel would need to put its own nuclear arsenal in a high state of readiness.
Aren’t there international agreements to stop an Iranian bomb?
Theoretically yes. However neither the Non-Proliferation Treaty of 1970 nor the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) of 2015 would stop Iran from building a nuclear bomb if it really wanted to. Iran signed the NPT treaty but could withdraw from it just as North Korea did. The JCPOA was intended to restrict Iran’ nuclear program to peaceful purposes only. However, the terms of inspection, Iranian subterfuge and the sunset clauses made the JCPOA a weak agreement even before President Trump withdrew from it in 2018 .
Final thoughts: An Iranian nuclear weapon would be a threat to its neighbors, international seaborne commerce and American interests in the Middle East .Both Democratic and Republican presidents have said that Iran should never have a nuclear weapon. Whether President Trump should have launched the current war is an important question but a separate matter.